RANGER AGAINST WAR: The Boston Massacre <

Tuesday, April 16, 2013

The Boston Massacre

--In "Brazil", the steampunk technocrats
can't keep up with the bombers

 ~How do you account for the fact
that the bombing campaign
has been going on for thirteen years?
~Beginners' luck 
--Brazil (1985)
_________________

Two bombs were detonated at the conclusion of the Boston Marathon 15 April 2013 resulting in 3 deaths and over 100 injuries. The event proves the maxim that to counter a threat we must be right every time, while the terrorists only need to be right once.

Why Boston? Key portal cities will be the only targets of terrorism. Terrorists have limited assets, and these cities offer easy ingress and egress.  Authorities are suggesting this is the work of a lone man, perhaps a Saudi national, but the lone wolf theory does not comport with historical events.

We must assume that any ancillary team members exfiltrated prior to the execution phase. The reason is asset value.  Bomb makers require sophisticated training and are the most valued members of the team; his life cannot be jeopardized in peripheral activities.

His specialty is not reconnaissance, security or any other support function of the planning stage.  Both active and passive support provide these functions, to include materiel gathering for the bomb maker (unless the explosives were provided by a State or non-State sponsor.) The explosives must also be infiltrated, and the maker is not the mule.

The pertinent question regarding whoever executed this attack is: How did they get past Saudi police, intelligence, Interpol, ICE, FBI, CIA and the Boston Police?  Note also that neither the 3rd Armored Division nor Seal Team 6 could have stopped this event, which shows that terrorism is not a military concern.

The  targeting of the Boston Marathon on Patriot's Day is similar to the Irish Republican Army's bombings in London streets during The Troubles. The targeting of a popular sporting event will cause terror beyond the actual destruction. The terrorist's goal is always far-reaching trauma, exceeding that of the physical damage.

A down and dirty listing of the perpetrators:
  • There were reconnaissance personnel familiar with Boston to select target locations
  • Security teams to protect the bomb maker
  • Administration personnel to provide safe houses, working areas and money, cover and transportation
  • A handler for these people; this is the coach and coordinator
  • A clean up team to sanitize their quarters
  • A driver, and possibly a photographer to document the event.  Today, that could mean carrying a cell-phone.

The bomber(s) and handler are expendable, and did not build the bomb. They only place and arm the bomb, and ideally will be killed in the explosion leaving no live intel sources behind (though Boston police are stating at this time that the bomber was not among those killed.)

These people are all like Chairman Mao's fishes swimming in a big river. In our little city, there are groups of Middle Eastern men who frequent local coffee shops playing chess, coming and going every few weeks, fading into the background, hiding in plain sight. We are not saying they are threats, but in a free society we have anonymous people coming and going at astounding rates; not being a police state is a double-edged sword.

The Boston bombing shows that despite the U.S. invasions of Iraq or Afghanistan, we have neither sufficiently or correctly identified the threat to the U.S., nor have we eliminated the motivation for attacks by these groups. While we send Special Operations Forces worldwide, a bomber gets through the levels of security cast by our supposed specialists.

Simply: All of the SWAT teams, drones and armored divisions will not protect us from a core of dedicated adversaries.

The question to be answered: From whom do the attackers obtain their operational abilities and support, and why do we fail to focus on the actual threat to our nation?

An event like the Boston bombing suggests we should reassess the logic and assumptions of the Phony War on Terror (PWOT ©)
____________________

Follow-on, per the IED/bombs: 

Most likely these were commercial explosives, as they were in backpacks.  They probably weighed no more than 40 pounds and no shrapnel was incorporated, keeping them light and concealable. This also implies they needed to be placed strategically to employ the surrounding area to act as shrapnel.

This means the bomb-maker knew his craft both technically and tactically.

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37 Comments:

Blogger FDChief said...

News reports say gunpowder as the charge and that the devices were apparently shoved inside pressure-cooker pots; supposedly the things are cheap and easy to make and the instructions are available on the internet. I looked into the groups known to have used these. They included Islamists, a U.S. soldier, and Nepalese Maoist rebels. Not really definitive.

I have to say, the relatively low casualty count and the lack of immediate attribution make me think the direct involvement of an organized Islamic group less likely. There might have been some subcontracting to a local thug or internet-jihadi nutball. But so far several of the jihadi groups have flat out denied having anything to do with this.

And add to that the - as you point out - cosmopolitan character of Boston. How many potential characters are out there? Ex-PIRA deadenders? Ulster nationalist nuts? Puerto Rican separatists? Right-wing militia whackadoodles? Former Tamil Tigers? Ex-Somali or Yemeni hardcases? Pakistanis with a grudge? Or the ever popular "lone nutter", another Unibomber with his grudge-list of people he hates?

So I agree that there's almost no way to stop stuff like this from happening, there's also no way - at least, not at this point - to connect this with any sort of larger foreign or domestic policies. At the moment it's just a crime about which we have neither motive nor suspects...

Tuesday, April 16, 2013 at 6:09:00 PM GMT-5  
Blogger BadTux said...

The last time a U.S. athletic event was bombed, it was a lone right-wing nutter (Eric Rudolph). Based on what's been said about the improvised bombs used here -- pressure-cooker pots, shrapnel that was apparently just random shotgun shot, nails and hardware, and regular gunpowder as the explosive -- it seems that the likely answers to your question are:

Q: From whom do the attackers gain operational capabilities and support? A: Easy access to reloading supplies in the U.S. gave the capabilities, support came from the NRA (which insures easy access to those supplies).

Q: How did they get by Saudi police? A: He didn't, he was born here.

Q: How did they get by intelligence, ICE, FBI, CIA, etc.? A: He didn't, he was born here.

Q: How did he get by Boston police? A: Because he was an American, dressed like an American, rather than some swarthy furriner like what the Boston PD was on the lookout for.

I would at present give a 90% probability to the notion that this was domestic terrorism of the Eric Rudolph kind. Al Qaeda would not use pressure cookers and reloading supplies purchased from a gun store. They would use professional explosives. Just sayin'.

874 anceroc
21 withsit

Wednesday, April 17, 2013 at 12:58:00 AM GMT-5  
Blogger Spud said...

I rather would suspect a left wing loony that is not satisfied with the outcome on the gun debate.
Let's ban gunpowder now !

Oh yeah, not easy to ban something that can be produced from Sulfur, manure & charcoal briquets eh ?

How bout we start by not pissing off folks in general ?

Lesson learned...Life is short, enjoy it,for tomorrow some whacko might just screw you.

Wednesday, April 17, 2013 at 6:07:00 AM GMT-5  
Blogger rangeragainstwar said...

Chief, BT,
i wrote this as soon as possible after the event.
I did not have the data on the alleged bomber nor info on his explosive.
As you both know i always discount the theory that T's are super dudes.
It's possible that this is a lone wolf attack, but that defies historical precedent.
I will let the situation develope before writing further.
jim

Wednesday, April 17, 2013 at 6:49:00 AM GMT-5  
Blogger rangeragainstwar said...

BT,
there are news reports that the bomber is a 20n yo SA national here on a temp visa.
If true why would a gunshop sell a foreign speaking dude large quantities of hard to find/purchase gunpowder?
Also home made bombs like this are pretty low level, so this discounts my idea that it was a highly developed device. Obviously it was command detonated or had a sophisticated, if simple detonator to cause max casualties.
The man on the roof is an interesting news item right up there with the man on the grassy knoll in Dallas 63.
I stand by my analysis of historical bombings.
jim

Wednesday, April 17, 2013 at 7:43:00 AM GMT-5  
Blogger BadTux said...

Spud, wrong MO for a left-wing loon. Unabomber-style left wing loons blow up scientists and industrialists, not marathon runners, who they approve of heartily as being Earth-friendly. Go read the Unabomber Manifesto again for more of how left-wing loons think, they really aren't into blowing up running events.

Ranger, there's been thousands of bombings on American soil over the past fifty years, and only one (1) of them has been a terrorist attack by foreigners (the 1993 WTC attack). There are two groups that have been most associated with these bombings: right wing loons like the KKK and Operation Rescue (Birmingham church bombing, abortion clinic bombings, etc.) and left-wing loons like the Weathermen and ELF. The left-wing loons tend to go after folks they accuse of destroying the environment or otherwise being "The Man", the Weathermen blew up a power station before they blew themselves up, the Unabomber blew up a couple of university science professors, ELF blew up a buncha SUV's in dealerships parking lots. The right-wing loons blow up churches where civil rights organizations meet, abortion clinics, federal buildings, and athletic events (yes, the last bombing of an athletic event was by a right wing loon). The 1993 WTC bombing stands out because it is the *only* bombing amongst a dreary litany of bombings that was done by foreigners. We Americans tend to blow our own up, we don't need outsiders to do that, that's what the dreary litany of bombings shows if you look at the actual record rather than the hysterical hyperventilation on Faux News.

Regarding the Saudi kid, Abdulrahman Ali Alharbi has been cleared. The FBI checked out his apartment, checked out his background, interviewed him in his hospital room (he took a good bit of shrapnel when one of the bombs went off) and decided that making him the Richard Jewell of this bombing wasn't happening. I know Faux News is heartbroken. So it goes.

So anyhow, the evidence is pointing to a homegrown terrorist in this case, as is true of 99.9% of the bombings of the past 40 years. I stand by my 90% probability that this was domestic terrorism of the Eric Rudolph kind rather than an Al Qaeda operation. There's still a possibility that it was an Al Qaeda operation, but the historical record shows that bombings on American soil are virtually always homegrown, whether we're talking Oklahoma City, the Unabomber, or the abortion clinic bombers.

Wednesday, April 17, 2013 at 10:23:00 AM GMT-5  
Blogger Lisa said...

BT,

It's RAW's position that terrorists only need one spectacular event every decade or so to keep the paranoia going. The U.S. has the benefit of geography to make infiltration, so events perpetrated by foreign groups like al-Qaeda will not be regular events.

Nonetheless, this is about the decade mark, and a reminder was imminent.

Wednesday, April 17, 2013 at 10:32:00 AM GMT-5  
Blogger BadTux said...

Which is another issue, this really wasn't spectacular enough for an al Qaeda operation. They tend to go for showy things like attempting to blow up the WTC (twice, succeeding the second time) or blow up airliners (multiple attempts). They did attempt to blow up the Salt Lake City Olympics, but their infiltration team was caught at the Canadian border when a suspicious Customs agent noted they looked nervous and called for the Border Patrol to stop them and check out their car.

Infiltrating the U.S. is pretty easy. Doing so with operational capabilities has proven to be somewhat difficult. Generally the response has been to rely on native capabilities available domestically -- such as boxcutters and Ryder trucks. The problem is that many of the materials used for this bombing, such as large amounts of gunpowder or shotgun ammunition (for the shrapnel), would raise suspicion if purchased by a foreign national. Some gun store owner would have noticed and already dropped the dime. So I agree that while we're overdue for an al Qaeda operation, this just doesn't feel like one. It feels more like Eric Rudolph bombing the Atlanta Olympics, and the reason that no gun store owner has dropped the dime about a suspicious powder/shot purchase is that the perp is one of his customers who reloads who maybe purchased a bit more than usual but not anything worthy of special note.

Note that the fact we are overdue for an al Qaeda attack is the *only* reason I give that even a 10% probability. As I pointed out earlier, there is only 1 (one) al Qaeda bombing inside America of the dreary litany of thousands of bombings on American soil over the past fifty years. If I was relying on historical record, I'd say there was a 99.9999% probability that this was homegrown. Still... I will say that the percentages still point to this being homegrown, not foreign terrorists.

Wednesday, April 17, 2013 at 10:56:00 AM GMT-5  
Blogger Spud said...

The MO doesn't fit any of the groups actually.
If it were a right sided loon then they most likely would have directed it toward a government entity. Not highly probable that a right winger would hurt innocents.

Black powder can be purchased over the internet, all ya need is a credit card. In fact I know of one dealer that a minimum purchase of 25 lbs is required. Totally legal for an individual to possess no more than 50 lbs. by fed law.

Wednesday, April 17, 2013 at 11:48:00 AM GMT-5  
Blogger Lisa said...

BT,

How about a rogue member of an emplaced terror cell, or even a fellow-traveler? Lots of possibilities, but you are correct in that is was not as spectacular an attack as a group like al-Qaeda might have hoped for.

...then again, it needn't be a WTC at this point.

If it is shown that this was a S.A. student who entered under Ms. Napolitano's fast-track entry program, that will be a sorry blight upon her and DHS.

Wednesday, April 17, 2013 at 11:53:00 AM GMT-5  
Blogger BadTux said...

Uhm, Spud, Eric Rudolph? Just sayin'. This fits the abortion/etc. bomber MO exactly. Even the choice of Boston fits that MO, because everybody knows that Massachusetts is full of liberals and that marathon runners are these disgustingly healthy sprout eaters who probably are liberal because what conservative would ever be insane enough to run 26 miles *voluntarily*? (Note -- not saying this is how you think, but I'm from rural Louisiana, I know how my redneck brethren think).

Again, I'm looking at history. The historical percentages are that a majority (80%+) of bombing attacks on American soil over the past 50 years were done by right-wing loons, whether we're talking about KKK church bombings of black churches involved in civil rights works (which BTW is still going on even though the national news media suppresses that fact), abortion clinic bombings, the Oklahoma City bombing, or the Atlanta Olympics bombing. ELF, the Unabomber, and the Weathermen account for the remainder. Al Qaeda is almost noise, with only 1 (one) bombing on American soil, the 1993 WTC attack. From a historical point of view, bombings on American soil are virtually always homegrown. It *could* be an Al Qaeda op. But it's not likely, if you look at the historical record. It seems most likely a right-wing lone loon of the Eric Rudolph ilk, because that's what the historical record of this sort of bombing plus an examination of the methods used supports. (And I can state with 100% certainty that pressure cooker bombs *are* well known in right wing loon circles, because I loosely associate with said people as part of my offroading activities).

Wednesday, April 17, 2013 at 12:09:00 PM GMT-5  
Blogger Spud said...

Hell BT, Loons a Loon in my book. From my perspective out here in the swamps of mid Floriduh all them Yankees are Sprout Eaters lol

Wednesday, April 17, 2013 at 12:20:00 PM GMT-5  
Anonymous PF Khans said...

Think you're missing the bigger picture here. Whoever did this was not intending to get caught. Small devices that were deposited that don't require much of a paper trail or public display at all.

This guy/guys is not doing a one and done sort of attack. He clearly doesn't have a death wish. That kind of avoidance is not typical for terrorists. It suggests state support or a wider network, or just one really crazy asshole, whose had to have had some training.

Wednesday, April 17, 2013 at 1:18:00 PM GMT-5  
Blogger Spud said...

Hate to burst ur bubble BT but...

The Chicago Sun-Times has compiled a list of domestic bombings since 1886. Included in the list are two by Bill Ayers’ former group, the Weather Underground. Ayers and his fellow former terrorist wife, Bernardine Dohrn, are close friends of President Obama.

Don't believe that I'd call those folks Right wingers lol

Point is, crazy comes in all ideologies.

Wednesday, April 17, 2013 at 2:05:00 PM GMT-5  
Blogger BadTux said...

Uhm, Spud, you forgot the Unabomber. I didn't. If you look at my list of left-wing loons who did bombings, you'll see him there as well as the Weathermen that you mentioned, who managed to blow up a power substation and themselves. Neither of which are, uhm, a marathon or other athletic event -- as I pointed out, left wing terrorists tend to go after symbols of technology or big business (check out ELF or the Unabomber's victims for an example of typical left-wing terrorist targets), not symbols of ecology. If a shopping mall or SUV dealership or timber company offices had been blown up, I'd suspect left wing terrorists. A marathon? Not so much.

In other words, examining the choice of targets, it appears less likely to be left wing or Islamic terrorists because it's not the kind of target they would have chosen. Of the two, Islamic terrorists may have decided it was a soft target despite the fact it isn't their kind of target and done it anyhow, thus why I assigned a 10% probability to Islamic terrorists. I assign almost zero probability to left wing terrorists here (1%), because not only is it not their kind of target, they're the kind of people who actually applaud things like marathons as being Earth-friendly since feet rather than technology are being used to transport the competitors.

In other words, I will not be surprised at all if it turns out to be a right-wing terrorist, because an examination of terrorist bombings in the U.S. show that this bombing is consistent with the MO for right-wing terrorist bombings, and not consistent with the MO for left-wing terrorist bombings or foreign-led terrorist bombings. But if it does turn out to be an Islamist, well. I'll be mildly surprised but not too shocked, since while this isn't their MO, it *is* a soft target.

Wednesday, April 17, 2013 at 3:37:00 PM GMT-5  
Blogger rangeragainstwar said...

BT,
i like your targeting analysis,BUT you are not factoring in a crazy or a ideological mercenary on a payroll.
I'm not saying this is the case , but a simple crazy is a possibility.
I always like Hackers trilogy=criminals,crazies,and crusaders.
jim

Thursday, April 18, 2013 at 7:46:00 AM GMT-5  
Blogger rangeragainstwar said...

Spud,
i saw your cmt about crazies AFTER i wrote my response to BT.
Yes we MUST always factor in the crazy quotient when discussing these affairs of the heart.
Dohrn,if i remember correctly, and my memory is old and faded came from my home town of Cleveland Ohio. I think her father was an attorney. She was lucky to keep from blowing herself up back in the day.
BT has a good handle on the domestic bombers. Probably better than mine b/c i was always focused on T as it affected military installations and units.
jim
jim

Thursday, April 18, 2013 at 7:52:00 AM GMT-5  
Blogger rangeragainstwar said...

PFK,
Your analysis is close to my thinking.
As i shared with BT i'd suspect a developing ideological mercenary.
I'm not ruling out a cell since the info is not available, nor do i doubt that we'll get all the facts any time soon.
A small fact sticks in my head- he was carrying or had to place 2 devices which means he made 2 trips , or had a helper, or had a car available. This is an important point.
jim

Thursday, April 18, 2013 at 7:57:00 AM GMT-5  
Blogger rangeragainstwar said...

PFK,
I don't think it'd be wise to carry 2 bombs at the same time. It's an egg and basket thing.
I'm just glad that this bomber didn't have the sophistication to build a true car bomb/ied.
I know you feel the same since you've seen their effectiveness in dealing death.
From what i saw the blast looked like a 60 round or a hand grenade.
jim

Thursday, April 18, 2013 at 8:00:00 AM GMT-5  
Blogger rangeragainstwar said...

BT,
I'm in total agreement concerning your AQ comments.
For terror to be effective evry attack MUST be more spectacular than the preceding event.
This event defies that rule.
Please keep in mind that my essay was written as soon as i saw the headlines, and is/was intended solely as a over view of a typical T operation. It was a template explanation, but we don't know if this was a classic opn.
IMO although T is not a military function they still use the same rules that we use when running a clandestine op , and this is often viewed as trade craft.
I don't know about todays SF/SOF , but in my day we were taught OSS type trade craft.
Somehow i suspect that this has been superseded by billy bad ass tough guy training. We must learn to think like the opponents, but this is virtually impossible since IF a person can think like a T then they wouldn't make it in our system of inside the box thinkers.
This attack , even if a crazy is an impressive example at the ineffectiveness of our entire security apparatus.
jim

Thursday, April 18, 2013 at 8:11:00 AM GMT-5  
Blogger rangeragainstwar said...

BT,
re your cmt on right/left wing bombers here in conus.
i'd think another key point is that the rw bomber often has community support and assistance often at the le level. Think church bombings when the pastors got uppity. Think B'ham Ala.
Additionally rw bombers usually have access to commercial explosives, either by theft or active support acquisition.
This is just a quik thought w/o research. It's simply my gut feeling from memories over the years.
jim

Thursday, April 18, 2013 at 8:20:00 AM GMT-5  
Blogger rangeragainstwar said...

Spud,

If it were a right sided loon then they most likely would have directed it toward a government entity. Not highly probable that a right winger would hurt innocents.
I challenge this statement.
The okc bombing refutes this point. IF McV had bombed the building on a sunday afternoon when it was unoccupied then i'd agree, BUT HE DIDN'T -he went for mass casualties, which was totally self defeating since nobody likes kids getting killed as a statement against the gov't.
Usually, and i say usually even T's don't deliberately target kids.
jim

Thursday, April 18, 2013 at 8:26:00 AM GMT-5  
Blogger rangeragainstwar said...

bt,
I'd surmise that if a T team were sophisticated enuf to infiltrate the US then they'd also be hot dog enuf to use commercial explosives.
if i were entering a foreign target i'd by pass their security entirely.
A frigging motorboat from Canada to Cleveland, but who'd be stupid enuf to bomb Cleveland. You get my point, that they lack trade craft.
thanks for writing.
I'd like to meet you some day.
jim

Thursday, April 18, 2013 at 8:32:00 AM GMT-5  
Blogger Spud said...

BT,
I agree that it doesn't have the feel of left wig fanatic, yet nor does it speak of the right either.
No clear target...
My gut says left agenda, to promote more DHS spending and further restriction of citizens freedoms.
MO says T, maybe they are finally making a statement of how easily the means can be had. Terror does not always have to come in large sophisticated packages.
In this crazy world threats can come from any angle.

Thursday, April 18, 2013 at 10:05:00 AM GMT-5  
Blogger BadTux said...

Ranger, it doesn't take sophisticated to infiltrate the US. Ask millions of Mexicans. Or, for that matter, Kai the Homefree Hitchhiker, the kid who stopped Racist Jesus from killing a woman and a black PG&E worker, who is a Canadian foster kid who isn't exactly all together and just wandered across the Canadian border at some point and kept going.

What would take sophisticated would be moving military grade explosives across the Atlantic Ocean (they aren't easily available here on our side of the Atlantic, not even in the failed Mexican narco-state). A state-sponsored actor could manage that. An individual terror cell would have serious difficulties, since they do not have access to transportation that allows unexamined baggage to be brought along.

Thus why the AQ operations on US soil relied on locally acquired materials, not materials brought from overseas. Note that it's hard to get military-grade explosives here in the U.S., and even getting a federal explosives license to buy commercial explosives requires a background check and a reasonable explanation as to why you need one ("I like blowing s*** up" isn't sufficient, you'll need evidence that you are a miner or some other professional that needs it for professional purposes as well as show that you have a safe place to store it). Thus why the domestic bombers by and large have, in recent years, relied on improvised explosives rather than commercial explosives (whether military grade or not). If AQ wants to blow something up they'll do the same. But the difficulty in amassing sufficient improvised explosives to create an *impressive* attack now that fertilizer stores are on the lookout for suspicious characters buying large amounts of ammonium nitrate... well. We'll see.

Regarding meeting, I suspect you'd be somewhat disappointed. A nerdy 50-ish analyst type is not likely what you are picturing in your head.

Thursday, April 18, 2013 at 10:52:00 AM GMT-5  
Blogger Lisa said...

BT,

Actually, per the meet-up:

I was thinking more like a penguin -- so very cute :)

Thursday, April 18, 2013 at 12:29:00 PM GMT-5  
Blogger FDChief said...

News reports today are saying that public cameras recorded two individuals with "black backpacks" similar to those found after the explosions. So it woulds like we have - at least - a McVeigh-Nichols thing going on here.

Still no claimants for this, though. Terrorist organizations live for publicity. The LACK of headline-grabbing seems suspicious if this really was an jihadi or similar organized type of formal "terrorist" cell.

Starting to wonder if we'll ever figure out the "why" for this one. Maybe if/when they catch these guys. BadTux mentioned Eric Rudolph. Here was his justification for the '96 Olympic bombing:

"In the summer of 1996, the world converged upon Atlanta for the Olympic Games. Under the protection and auspices of the regime in Washington millions of people came to celebrate the ideals of global socialism. Multinational corporations spent billions of dollars, and Washington organized an army of security to protect these best of all games. Even though the conception and purpose of the so-called Olympic movement is to promote the values of global socialism, as perfectly expressed in the song Imagine by John Lennon, which was the theme of the 1996 Games even though the purpose of the Olympics is to promote these ideals, the purpose of the attack on July 27 was to confound, anger and embarrass the Washington government in the eyes of the world for its abominable sanctioning of abortion on demand.

The plan was to force the cancellation of the Games, or at least create a state of insecurity to empty the streets around the venues and thereby eat into the vast amounts of money invested."

Thursday, April 18, 2013 at 1:47:00 PM GMT-5  
Blogger FDChief said...

Based on the news this morning it appears that the two individuals (possibly? probably?) involved in this are natives of the southern corona of Russia, either Chechnya or Dagestan:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-22219116

At least one of the two seems to have had some Islamist associations, although I still cannot find any of the usual Islamic suspects (including the Chechen Islamic outfits like the so-called "Special Purpose Islamic Regiment" and the "Riyadus-Salikhin Reconnaissance and Sabotage Battalion of Chechen Martyrs") claiming these mooks.

So it's far from clear what the hell is going on here, but at the moment it looks something like what I posted back on 4/15 over at GFT: "I should add that the "lone nutter" theory doesn't preclude the nutter having Islamic issues rather than anti-tax issues. No reason that this couldn't be some Somali or Yemeni expat getting payback for drone strikes." or, as it now seem likely, some sort of double-lone-nutters radicalized by the Soviet-Chechnya war and getting payback for...something.

What that says about the "GWOT" I dunno, other than picking fights with ideologies is never a particularly good idea...

Friday, April 19, 2013 at 10:28:00 AM GMT-5  
Blogger BadTux said...

Yah, Chechens. Effin' Chechens. I'm flabbergasted. Yes, this fits the MO of Chechen terror bombings -- in Moscow. But in friggin' *Boston*?!

The uncle speculates someone radicalized the kids. It might be interesting to know who that someone was, and how they managed to convince Chechens to blow up Americans, not Russians.

Friday, April 19, 2013 at 10:47:00 AM GMT-5  
Blogger Spud said...

Thought it had that feel to it, didn't get to be an old operator and not trust my gut lol.
I'll still not be surprised if there is some left leaning content here.
Just real glad that it was "probably" not homegrown. We shall see bout that one hopefully...

Friday, April 19, 2013 at 11:10:00 AM GMT-5  
Blogger FDChief said...

Spud: Hard to peg this one way or the other. These guys have been in the US for years. Based on the comments I've been reading a couple of Koran-muttering madrassis they ain't. But there's also no sign of any "left-leaning" (or "right-leaning", for that matter) motivation. From what little I've learned at least one of them sounds like he was a regular U.S. high school jock.

Y'know what this DOES sort of remind me of?

Columbine.

A couple of young guys with grudges. Maybe their grudges included some sort of Chechen-separatist component to them. Maybe not. But before we go all Islamist-conspiracy-theory let's remember this; being a Muslim (or a fundamentalist Christian or part of any other sort of group) does NOT mean that you can't just be an asshole personally.

I hope that the cops can nap the remaining dude alive so we can get some idea of WTF these two were doing. Political? Religious? Or just being assholes?

Friday, April 19, 2013 at 11:49:00 AM GMT-5  
Blogger Spud said...

FD Chief,
There is absolutely no doubt in my mind that they were and are ASSHOLES.
Of this we are positive !!

Friday, April 19, 2013 at 12:02:00 PM GMT-5  
Blogger FDChief said...

And in the vein that we've stressed since beginning this discussion, let's be exact; these guys are NOT Chechen;

"Authorities are searching for Dzhokhar A. Tsarnaev, 19, a government official told the Globe this morning. The dead suspect is his brother, a separate source said. Dzhokhar Tsarnaev is a native of Kyrgyzstan, the Kyrgyz state news agency said. He was studying at the University of Massachusetts Dartmouth, university officials said."

And here's an interesting - if utterly groundless in this case so far - "six degrees" sort of thing if you want to do some pointless speculation.

1. One of the primary groups of Islamic rebellion in Kyrgyzstan is an outfit called "Hizb ut-Tahrir". This critter is another of the Islamic Caliphate hugging groups but predates AQ by decades - founded in Jerusalem in the Fifties.

2. The Syrian branch of it was seriously involved in sparking the rebellion against the Assad regime in Damascus.

3. So - IF the Tsarnaev Bros. ARE associated with Kyrgyz Islamists - WHICH I AM NOT SAYING; we don't know anything at this point...but IF they are - then much as with AQ the U.S. has been bit on the ass by a bunch of religious nuts we thought we could pal up with...

BUT - right now there is NO evidence that these two guys are anything other than Columbine-style assholes.

Friday, April 19, 2013 at 12:04:00 PM GMT-5  
Blogger FDChief said...

Wait, wait... I stand corrected.

Here's the guys' uncle:

"Ruslan Tsarni, the uncle of the bombing suspects, speaking with reporters, says the family is "ashamed." His brother, the suspects' father, is now back in Russian. The family are ethnic Chechens. When asked what provoked the attack, his answer was simple: "Being losers." He also said that "any connection to Islam … is a fake," though he admitted he hasn't seen his nephews in years. The suspects, he insists, have never been to Chechnya."

"Being losers."

I think Uncle Tsarni gets the "quote of the day" award...

Friday, April 19, 2013 at 12:21:00 PM GMT-5  
Blogger FDChief said...

Second guy is in custody.

Let me say "Well done" to the law enforcement agencies - not JUST for hunting this guy down but for taking him alive. A live POW is worth a dozen dead enemies. Maybe now we'll get some answers about the why of this.

Friday, April 19, 2013 at 9:35:00 PM GMT-5  
Blogger Spud said...

Hmmm Immigrant, Lefty, Probable Islamics.
Is it no wonder that our establishment agencies fail to catch these in time.
Just way too busy chasing Bubba and his Gun rack...
Well done ? If you consider martial law declared in an entire area for one lousy suspect...Then to have the house owner discover the dude after they are "ALLOWED !" to come back out of their houses.
Oh yeah, Well done Brownie...

Saturday, April 20, 2013 at 5:35:00 AM GMT-5  
Blogger FDChief said...

Spud: 1. These guys have been in the U.S. for a decade. The younger guy was NINE when he was admitted. Immigrants? Yeah, maybe if you count my daughter, who has been here since she was 18 months old. Sorry, man, that dog won't hunt.

2. Lefty? LEFTY? WTF, man? Did you read anything about the Chechen resistance before you posted this? Lefty? And "Bubba and his gun rack"?

And the bottom line is that the LEAs involved nailed the guy within a week and took him alive. Look up the Russian responses to the Chechen groups there if you want to see what a total fuckstory this could have been in other hands.

Saturday, April 20, 2013 at 10:46:00 AM GMT-5  

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