Time on Target

This is a study of the recent raid on an Iraqi government facility in Karbala that saw four U.S. soldiers captured and executed by unknown assailants. I offer it without access to official after-action reports, and only on the basis of what I've read in the press. Nothing that follows indicates acceptance of murderous behavior by any belligerents in this Iraqi scenario.

Pre-Operational:

1. Vehicles must be procured. Five each at $40,000 per. These were either stolen, or purchased. If purchased, the opposition has access to excellent funding. But more troubling is if they were stolen, as this could imply cooperation within the Iraqi government.
2. Weapons and uniforms. Same situation as vehicles.
3. Training of team required.
4. Intelligence required to define and procure a target that could be exploited. Pinpoint information was required. This suggests Iraqi official compliance and sources (cooperation).

Operational:

1. Detailed knowledge of route and checkpoint procedures. Indicates dry-runs prior to execution of raid.
2. Suggests cooperation of police at road-block. However, as police supposedly called ahead to warn of approaching vehicles, this needs further investigation.
3. The timing of the attack is significant. Obviously, U.S. forces have no control of events, even during the day.
4. It is safe to assume that the assault team had near and far security isolating the target.
5. Precise raid and time on target.
6. Escape route preordained and coordinated.
7. Abandoning vehicles is excellent operational security.
8. Killing the POW's is a statement.

Analysis:

1. This raid is a possible reaction to the raid that was executed on Erbil, in which Iranians were arrested.
2. This raid is a reaction to the "surge" in U.S. forces. This is a statement that no U.S. service members are safe outside of safe areas. U.S. military must be ever-vigilant and ready for attack.
3. U.S. casualties could have been avoided if the captives had maintained a proper defensive posture. Why did they not fight to the death? Surely U.S. fighters know that their chances of surviving capture by Islamic fighters is slim-to-none. These executions will ratchet up the level of violence.
4. The brutal murder of U.S. personnel is to be expected, since U.S. military personnel have murdered and raped in more than one incident. Abu Ghraib, torture and arbitrary imprisonment, along with ignoring the Geneva Conventions, all encourage the cycle of violence.
5. The attackers detonated sound bombs and "didn't target anybody except Americans." This indicates an inside job, as the flash-bangs were used rather than normal grenades, either concussion or fragmentation. In effect, the assault team didn't want to hurt Iraqi personnel. This is standard assault team tactics for hostage/barricade situations, to protect the innocents. Military assault teams use total deadly explosives, as preservation of life is not an objective.
6. Attackers probably work for the U.S., as they spoke English so well. The one blonde attacker is surely a dye job.
   

There are all indicators that this is a Shia-inspired attack with government compliance and Iranian support. This cannot be acknowledged by the U.S. leadership, so the blame will fall solely on the Iranians.

Another brick in the wall in the march to war with Iran.