Gambler's Fallacy
"Al Qaida has been defeated completely.
They're shifting their operations outside of Iraq.
They will not have a safe home here anymore."
--Maj. Gen. Abdul-Karim Khalaf, Chicago Tribune (11/18/07)
Money, its a gas.
Grab that cash with both hands and make a stash.
--Money, Pink Floyd
Think where man's glory most begins and ends,
And say my glory was I had such friends
--William Butler Yeats
_________
They're shifting their operations outside of Iraq.
They will not have a safe home here anymore."
--Maj. Gen. Abdul-Karim Khalaf, Chicago Tribune (11/18/07)
Money, its a gas.
Grab that cash with both hands and make a stash.
--Money, Pink Floyd
Think where man's glory most begins and ends,
And say my glory was I had such friends
--William Butler Yeats
_________
Delightful. Let's see -- our actions create a reaction, in the form of the organization of a terrorist entity which didn't exist prior to our presence (= al Qaida in Mesopotamia), then we move 'em out onto the world stage, which is where we sit. Now there is something to warm the cockles of your heart.
Defense Secretary Robert Gates spoke recently of the latest plans to lob money and weapons at Afghanistan to "counter a growing threat from al Qaida fighters" (More Recruits, U.S. Arms Planned for Afghan Military). So it's really like a game of badminton; a really costly, hopeless game of badminton.
Yes, the 60,000 U.S. M-16's should counter the IED threat causing 90% of the Afghan casualties nicely. A fairly typical U.S. solution--arm them to the teeth and pretend they are our friends. And friends who are happy to take a pretty payout, too. Consider the following:
Now, that's a friend with a certain chutzpah, who has correctly identified his Daddy Warbucks. And get this: Afghanistan is a third-world, mud-hut sort of a place, yet Mr. Karzai is holding forth from his palace, a palace probably funded by U.S. tax dollars. Ain't democracy grand?
To the troglodyte called Ranger, the VN experience remains instructive. When the NVA conquered the South, where did all those millions of M-16 rifles and untold numbers of pistols and grenades, at least 90,000 M60 machine guns, M-60 tanks and heavy artillery go?
Two places:
Again from the article, "In a visit to the eastern province of Khost. . .Gates met with U.S. commanders who described a dramatic drop in attacks as U.S. forces partnered with the local government and boosted aid. Before an attack Monday night, 'we went seven months without an attack on a district center,' said Lt. Col. Scott Custer."
Lt. Custer's statement signifies nothing, though it is parroted by many to indicate progress. Correlation does not indicate causation. It is the logical fallacy of cum hoc, ergo propter hoc. The U.S. has not been a target of a significant terrorist attack since 9-11, but we are still wasting billions on a gambler's fallacy.
Since this LTC's name is "Custer," he should know that seven months of quiet can be nothing but a prelude to a significant event. Everything regresses toward the mean.
Finally, in a terribly patronizing moment in his recent visit, Gates, upon espying one Afghan private who was particularly skilled at shooting, said "If I'm in a foxhole, I want you next to me," to Pvt. Hussein, 18, from Nardak.
Gates has never been a foxhole, nor has he ever dug one. If Gates wants Pvt. Hussein next to him, then he should just kiss him on the ear. Pvt. Hussein would surely follow him home.
When did the Afghanistan debacle become NATO's concern? Did the administration request NATO support and compliance before unilaterally invading? The U.S. position is, as always, arrogant and unilateral. NATO is well-advised to avoid that quagmire which foolhardy U.S. leaders so precipitously and stupidly embraced.
If America has a yen to nation-build, let's start in New Orleans. Their need has primacy over Kabul or Baghdad. When did U.S. taxpayers sign on as caretakers for Iraq and Afghanistan?
Ranger is disgusted by the waste, fraud and destruction that are the hallmarks of these phony wars. Let's get our focus back on the realities and welfare of America.
Defense Secretary Robert Gates spoke recently of the latest plans to lob money and weapons at Afghanistan to "counter a growing threat from al Qaida fighters" (More Recruits, U.S. Arms Planned for Afghan Military). So it's really like a game of badminton; a really costly, hopeless game of badminton.
"The Pentagon is also working to speed the flow of weaponry and armor to the Afghan forces, who suffer most of their casualties -- up to 90 percent, according to Afghan army officials -- in roadside bombings. The weapons include 5,000 U.S. M-16 rifles, due to arrive this month, with another 10,000 each month after that, for a total of 60,000, said Army Maj. Gen. Robert W. Cone, head of the training command."
Yes, the 60,000 U.S. M-16's should counter the IED threat causing 90% of the Afghan casualties nicely. A fairly typical U.S. solution--arm them to the teeth and pretend they are our friends. And friends who are happy to take a pretty payout, too. Consider the following:
"In an appearance with Gates, President Hamid Karzai also made a broad public appeal for increased assistance. "If you are asking me whether we need more, I will never say no. I will keep asking for more," he said at a packed news conference at his presidential palace in Kabul."
Now, that's a friend with a certain chutzpah, who has correctly identified his Daddy Warbucks. And get this: Afghanistan is a third-world, mud-hut sort of a place, yet Mr. Karzai is holding forth from his palace, a palace probably funded by U.S. tax dollars. Ain't democracy grand?
To the troglodyte called Ranger, the VN experience remains instructive. When the NVA conquered the South, where did all those millions of M-16 rifles and untold numbers of pistols and grenades, at least 90,000 M60 machine guns, M-60 tanks and heavy artillery go?
Two places:
- The new Vietnam sold them on the world surplus market and they ended up in PFLP, IRA, PLO, Black September and FARC arms rooms. They did not magically disappear, but were merely shifted around the troubled world and were instrumental in the growth of violence and terrorism worldwide. Just as we provided for Vietnam, we are doing the same thing in Iraq and Afghanistan.
- In the late 70's and 80's the Japs were kicking Detroit's auto-making ass. The steel was provided by U.S.-made heavy armaments left behind and abandoned by the VN army. The Japs bought the steel surplus and melted them down to provide Toyotas and Hondas to the ever-gullible U.S. taxpayer.
Again from the article, "In a visit to the eastern province of Khost. . .Gates met with U.S. commanders who described a dramatic drop in attacks as U.S. forces partnered with the local government and boosted aid. Before an attack Monday night, 'we went seven months without an attack on a district center,' said Lt. Col. Scott Custer."
Lt. Custer's statement signifies nothing, though it is parroted by many to indicate progress. Correlation does not indicate causation. It is the logical fallacy of cum hoc, ergo propter hoc. The U.S. has not been a target of a significant terrorist attack since 9-11, but we are still wasting billions on a gambler's fallacy.
Since this LTC's name is "Custer," he should know that seven months of quiet can be nothing but a prelude to a significant event. Everything regresses toward the mean.
Finally, in a terribly patronizing moment in his recent visit, Gates, upon espying one Afghan private who was particularly skilled at shooting, said "If I'm in a foxhole, I want you next to me," to Pvt. Hussein, 18, from Nardak.
Gates has never been a foxhole, nor has he ever dug one. If Gates wants Pvt. Hussein next to him, then he should just kiss him on the ear. Pvt. Hussein would surely follow him home.
"Repeatedly during the trip, Gates voiced frustration that other countries are not fulfilling their financial and military commitments to Afghanistan. He also bristled at NATO's failure, so far, to supply an additional 3,500 trainers for the Afghan police and two more infantry battalions, and said he planned to raise the matter at a NATO meeting in Scotland this month."
When did the Afghanistan debacle become NATO's concern? Did the administration request NATO support and compliance before unilaterally invading? The U.S. position is, as always, arrogant and unilateral. NATO is well-advised to avoid that quagmire which foolhardy U.S. leaders so precipitously and stupidly embraced.
If America has a yen to nation-build, let's start in New Orleans. Their need has primacy over Kabul or Baghdad. When did U.S. taxpayers sign on as caretakers for Iraq and Afghanistan?
Ranger is disgusted by the waste, fraud and destruction that are the hallmarks of these phony wars. Let's get our focus back on the realities and welfare of America.
Labels: arming afghanistan, dexter as analog to phony war on terror, global war on terror, gwot, kharzai is corrupt, PWOT, surplus weapons sales
posted by rangeragainstwar at 11:05 PM
4 Comments:
they will also soon be casting around for the folks they will blame. the NATO accusations are only the beginning. neither iraq, nor afghanistan have ever been anything but an american show with a few other countries along for the ride.
the fault will lay with a biased press that didn't report "the good news" of their successes.
the fault will lay with "a weakened american voter" who failed to understand the importance of their war.
the fault with lay with "the dirty hippies" who undermined every effort they made to rally support.
the fault will lay with weak willed allies who let us down at critical junctures.
it will never, ever, end up to rest on the people who lied to start the war, then lied to keep it going. it will never come to rest on the doorsteps of the people who have profited insanely from the no-bid contracts which were collected on but never performed, or collected on and then outsourced to filipino slave laborers.
they will spend the last three or four years of involvement there doing nothing but buffing up the shiney lies to deflect the blame. all that time though, they will be profiting in an obscene way.
Funny issue is that NATo has actually done good work in Afghanistan, and that US heavyhandedness has been detrimental to the process. The ISAF/US split of command has been a total screwup, and the COIN doctrine is just beginning to seep through.
fnord,
I've recently thumbed through Petraeus's COIN manual. It seems to lack definitive guidance for commanders. It is doubtful that COIN is any clearer now than it was 2 years ago.
Of course the U.S. approach is always to kill, which deviates from the NATO and Canadian policies. This assures failure, as hearts and minds are not won via ground combat.
For every insurgent killed, you lose 20-30 hearts and minds.
MB,
As always, an excellent amplification (you need to become a co-writer here.)
--Jim
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