Guts Nicht Gut

The village band disbanded soon; the mayor, too resigned.
The council even jumped its graft, and in seclusion pined;
The marshal caught the next train out, and those we used to know
Began to leave in flocks and droves some twenty years ago.

For after Casey fanned that day the citizens all left,
And one by one they sought new lands, heartbroken and bereft;
The joyous shout no more rang out of children at their play;
The village blacksmith closed his shop; the druggist moved away.

--from "Mudville's Fate," Grantland Rice

_________

Ranger question of the day:

"Where are you, General Lute, and what are you doing today to earn your loot?

__________

The latest National Intelligence Estimate--the highest level analysis produced by the U.S. intelligence community, representing the consensus of all 16 U.S. intelligence agencies-- assures us that al Quaida as a global terrorist entity remains robust. This despite, and indeed perhaps because of, U.S. efforts to meddle in the Middle East ("Intelligence report: Al Qaida at renewed strength in Pakistan.")

"Al Qaida's core leadership — a reference to bin Laden and his top aide, Ayman al Zawahri — is increasingly directing global terrorist operations from a haven in Pakistan's lawless tribal areas bordering Afghanistan, officials from the CIA, Defense Intelligence Agency and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence said in presenting the unclassified report.

"We actually see the al Qaida central being resurgent in their role in planning operations. They seem to be fairly well-settled into the safe haven and the ungoverned spaces of Pakistan there," John Kringen, the CIA's director for intelligence, said."

This NIE is interesting, as it employs terms like "militants " and "extremists," versus simple terrorism. The problem is multi-faceted, and that this administration's reductionist/obscurantist approach simply defies logic, while ignoring the realities of the situation.

Terrorism, extremism, insurgency, guerrilla war, COIN are all different words describing distinct concepts. However, after many years of war, the terms are still being used interchangeably. If we cannot get precise on even the war's classification, how much less harmonious and consistent must be the approach on the ground.

If words and concepts are not understood, then the war itself will remain incomprehensible, and consist of a welter of confused approaches. And so it plays itself out.

Ranger doubts that GWB could define any of the terms presented. It is a sad day in Mudville. We're missing all the pitches, which leads inevitably to a strikeout.

". . . Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff told the Chicago Tribune's editorial board that he believed 'we are entering a period this summer of increased risk.' Chertoff said his comments were based on a gut feeling."

Note well: the Homeland Czar, overseer of the largest collection of U.S. intelligence agencies, with every tool in his toolbox--both legal and extralegal--is unable to base his assessments on something other than a "gut feeling."

Ranger is amazed at the incompetent and cavalier approach to national policy. The president bases invasions on whims and communions with the Almighty, and Czar Chertoff bases his actions on gut feelings.

Guts lead to an asshole every time.

This is Ranger's gut feeling.