Prodigal Son

The administration likes to point out that we're fighting them there, so, you know...and what's more, there have been no attacks since 9-11. A great victory, they claim. However, while the first statement is patently false, the second is obviously correct. But to claim that the absence of further attacks issued from the U.S.'s invasion of Afhanistan and Iraqi is the old post hoc fallacy...you know, the flutter of a butterfly's wings in Australia phenomenon.

I never hear the point mentioned that the absence of a further attack is not contingent upon U.S. security procedures, or the policies of Homeland Security, or the wars in Iraq or Afghanistan.

The terrorist group Al Quaida simply had to get the ball rolling, and they did so on 9-11. No further attack from them could cause a more profligate or prodigal expenditure of our national treasure. Moreover, they have neither the operational capability nor support network in place to facilitate high risk, significant attacks. These groups can afford "to chill" for 6 to 10 years, until opponent operation readiness degrades, due to hypervigilance and the tendency to "stand down" after a period of domestic safety.

This is why terrorism pays. Al Quaida accomplished its desired result, namely, to affect a larger audience beyond the target, at a nominal cost. Americans are naive and/or misled to believe that they wanted solely to kill Americans. Al Quaida does not have the capabilities to carry out such a sustained attack; their numbers are estimated at 1,500. In one diabolically brilliant, cost-effective act, they used our materiel and a few willing suicides to wrap a superpower up tight.

Al Quaida does not now need to attack further to cause terror. U.S. policy and overreactions create this disproportionate response through "chicken little" policies. They have effected a self-perpetuating drain of resources, both in terms of monetary and human capital, with no end in sight.

Generally speaking, Islamists in America are not violently opposed to our society, nor do they wish to see it destroyed. That's why they're here, and not there. Our Islamic communities are not radicalized as in Europe. Even if they were, they would lack easily accessible escape routes after the commission of an attack.

For a group to mount an attack, there must be money, documents, travel arrangements, cover, housing, surveillance, reconnaisance and transportation. The money, documents and travel can be from overseas connections, but all else must be locally available. Also, all groups (except suicides) want an easily accessible escape route. This is lacking in America, so attacks will probably be suicidal. Otherwise, all pre-operational requirements are the same, regardless of escape strategy.

Suicidal attacks will not use the normal support apparatus evident in regular terrorist ops. Therefore, there will be pre-operational intelligence indicators that an attack is imminent. This was the case in 9-11, and it will be the case in any future attacks. Intelligence and police functions are the counter to this threat. Armed military guards in airports are only feel-good efforts; armed guards did not deter the 9-11 attackers.

Contrary to all the t.v. and movie hype, terrorists will not carry AK-47's or handguns. These weapons are too obvious, and that is not in the nature of the threat. But the next attack upon America must be dramatic and newsworthy; otherwise, Al Quaida realizes it won't get continual airplay, and free media feeds are their best weapon, both in terms of amplifying their power, and as a recruitment tool.

I do not envision an airplane/airport scenario, other than possibly a group forcing U.S. authorities to shoot down a U.S. passenger plane over U.S. territory. Possibly, I would envision a FedEx or UPS courier jet being utilized as an attack platform, since they can be more easily broached by hostile groups. Both scenarios would require minimum participants and would be more difficult to detect.

Any future attackers will be Westernized, educated and familiar with western society and functions. Therefore, looking at British, French and German Islamic persons would be well-advised. Future attackers will not come directly from Egypt, Suadi Arabia, Pakistan or Afghanistan. This was generally true for the 9-11 participants, and will continue to be so in the future. This familiarity of culture is essential to bypass internal security measures.

International cooperation is the key to prevention of future domestic attacks. This attitude seems to stick in the craw of Lone Gun Bush, but it is the only possible route to security. It won't be o.k. to shoot your way out of this corral.

Jim and Lisa