Pentagon Fire Sale

"He was found guilty of speaking his mind"
--Hu Jia's mother, on the Chinese human rights activist's
sentencing to 3 1/2 years in a labor camp for subversion

Someday this war's gonna end
--Apocalypse Now (1979)

In the long run, we are all dead
--John Maynard Keynes
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The U.S. Naval Institute's journal Proceedings has become more candid and accessible in recent years. (Note: The "Going Out of Business" sign graced the photo in the hard copy, but had been scrubbed in the online edition. Candor only goes so far.)

One recent article projected bankruptcy for the Pentagon (fiscal, not moral) in the near future based on acquisition figures dating back through the last century and the laws of then-Martin Marietta Aerospace executive Norman R. Augustine (DOD on a Glide Path to Bankruptcy.) Anderson foresaw unsustainable exponential increases in unit costs of military equipment vis-a-vis military budgets.

"Growth rates for unit costs of major systems are greater than those for total defense procurement, total defense spending, and the gross domestic product (GDP). If these historic trends are not addressed, the U.S. military will cease being a significant influence in world events because of shrinking force structure. Past acquisition reforms have been unable to change the trend because they focused on the problem's symptoms (e.g., schedule slippages and cost growth), not its causes."

Using Augustine's growth rates (Augustine's Laws, 1982), which have been borne out in the 30+ years since he developed them, "procuring a single tactical aircraft by 2050 [will] take the entire defense budget."

"If [this] trend continues, the entire defense budget would be required to buy one aircraft carrier early in the 22nd century. Thus, the problem is not just with aircraft. . . .estimates for the Future Combat System, the Army's current largest acquisition program, have increased more than 75 percent over the 2003 baseline estimate."

"Recently defense budget requests have not included the majority of costs of the conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan. Most wartime supplemental funding has been for increased operating costs plus replacement of consumable items. At the same time, accelerated use of military equipment is increasing the need for replacement of systems. Thus, recent supplemental funding is not easing the acquisition problem."

It is hard to imagine the defense establish in a state of decline when it is taking in over $400 billion a year, not including supplemental appropriations. However, unless changes are made in the procurement process, the author asserts, "U.S. defense forces will continue to shrink and age, and we rapidly will cease being a dominant military force in the world."

Maybe having empty pockets is the only thing that will stay our hand.