We've Got You Surrounded

I sell guns to the Arabs
and dynamite to the Jews
--Smuggling Man, Richie Havens
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After the Shiite Hezbollah Iranian/Syrian muscle flexing in Lebanon last week, Prime Minister Faud Saniora's government is a shaky proposition.

Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice said last week, "We will stand by the Lebanese government and the peaceful citizens of Lebanon through the crisis and provide the support they need to weather this storm." But how?

Since we are deadlocked in two elective wars, do U.S. policymakers plan to expand into another conflict? President Bush naively called the "Ceder Revolution" -- the end of Syria's 30-year Lebanese occupation in 2005 -- a victory for his pro-democracy vision. But they are now back on the brink

We are watching a simple action : reaction. The U.S. moved to depose Sunni elements in Iraq and Afghanistan, moves which benefited the Shiites in the region, which is now spilling over into Lebanon. The Sunni situation remains unclear, and resolution is not a done deal. The Saudis will not roll over for the Shias.

The U.S. decision to scrap realpolitik and intervene thusly has neutralized 80 years of a delicate balance. The U.S. can threaten, cajole and intimidate Iran all day long with nuclear armed carrier groups, but Iran has the real power in the area, delivered courtesy the U.S.A.

That power is that the region no longer fears the combat power of America, because it cannot address the issues that are relevant to the region.

As Thomas Friedman said in "The New Cold War,"

For now, Team America is losing on just about every front. How come? The short answer is that Iran is smart and ruthless, America is dumb and weak, and the Sunni Arab world is feckless and divided. Any other questions?

Furthermore, quoting author Aaron David Miller, he says America is “not liked, not feared and not respected,” and “'cannot defeat, co-opt or contain' any of the key players in the region.” That is it in a nutshell.

Hezbollah is a regional power, with or without Iranian and Syrian support. U.S. policy must do a better job selecting its friends, and a decisively better job selecting its enemies. U.S. policy should not be contingent upon the House of Saud, yet presently U.S. postures reflect Saudi aspirations in the region.

What are the long-term strategic benefits envisioned in U.S. foreign policy? Can anybody state these clearly? Foreign policy does not react to events: it should shape them.

As it stands, U.S. policy in the region is simply knee-jerk reaction that benefits naught.