Blink

Who turns the wheel
And who throws the dice
On the day after tomorrow?
--Day After Tomorrow,
Tom Waits
____________

Oil escalates in price $10.75 a barrel in a single day earlier this month and nobody blinks. The head of Russia's Gazprom says look for $250 barrel soon. Corn tops $7.00 a bushel for the first time and this becomes a significant news item. So, we have come to expect petroleum prices to increase daily, but the price of corn surprises us?

All of our commodities are on an escalator ride, and we are getting a real world lesson on the web of life. The price of corn (feed) rises, then meat and dairy rises. Ditto petroleum. The price paid is not only direct but indirect. Bill McKibbon writes in today's WaPo about "the [clear] trend toward scarcity" and the rolling back of our frontier mentality (End of the Open Road.)

We spoke with a waitress this weekend in a Georgia restaurant from Cocoa Beach, Florida, where she and her husband owned a home and their family lived well on his income as a trucker. He recently lost the trucking job due to escalating costs and is now unemployed. They sold the house and she is currently the sole breadwinner. "You'll see me here from 10 til 8 most days."

Analysts are predicting $4.50 at the gas pumps before Summer's end, but it will be there before corn rises again. What Americans won't verbalize is their fears for tomorrow. We are not afraid of terrorism, we are afraid for our wallets, and the McCain/Obama roadshow is not playing that song.

It is a nice game of transference to focus on the wars abroad versus the battles at home. Terrorism is so antiseptic, in a way. Oh, unless you're over there in uniform trying to ferret THEM out.

One can natter on endlessly about matters which do not actually lacerate the skin or the soul. That is an intellectual exercise, twice removed. One can shake one's head ruefully and not feel a pinch. But what is not being said is that the other shoe has not dropped, and that we all know that oil prices are not going to stabilize.

Ranger predicts $8.00 gas within the next two years, if not sooner. These are the fears too dark to speak. It is easier to ignore and just hope it is a bad dream that will go away before it bites our nuts.

Through habituation and accommodation, the average consumer adjusts to these daily assaults. The WaPo ran an article yesterday on the concept of transaction utility. Many are going without basics, let alone iPods. When sheer existence is threatened, will anyone advocate for those so pressed?

The only bad dream that will go away is George W. Bush, but we will not get out of our nightmare anytime soon.

The reality is not a bad dream that can be left behind upon awakening from our collective Ambien-induced slumber.

--Jim and Lisa